Swiss tradition: Burning snowman predicts summer

The burning of a snowman in Zürich as part of Swiss tradition has revealed what the summer has in store, and it is not very summery.

At the traditional Sechseläuten in Zürich, the snowman "Böögg" is burnt each April. The Böögg symbolises winter and in this way winter is banished. According to folklore, the time that the "Böögg" burns gives a prediction of summer.

The shorter the time before the head of the decorated doll explodes, the more beautiful the summer will be. This year, Böögg exploded after 57 minutes – it has never taken this long before.

The predictions of the “weather prophet” are not exactly scientific and have been wrong many times. Last year, the snowman burned for almost 38 minutes and also predicted a bad summer.

It transpires that the summer of 2022 was one of the sunniest and warmest summers ever recorded. Whether it was a good or bad summer is, of course, a matter of taste. Heatwaves, droughts or the record-breaking melting of glaciers were the big downsides of the past summer.

Unsurprisingly, a study by MeteoSwiss reveals that last year's wrong forecast was not an isolated case and that, statistically speaking, the Böögg is not a very good weather predictor.

The study found no correlation between the time of burning and the average summer temperature. Weather models have a different prediction for summer.

In contrast to Böögg, long-term forecasts from the world's leading weather models show that the summer of 2023 is very likely to be warmer than average. The US agency NOAA, for example, predicts a warmer than average summer for the whole of Europe.

According to the European long-term model, the average temperature in June, July, and August in Central Europe is expected to be above the climate mean with a probability of more than 80%.

Scientific seasonal forecasts don't tell you exactly how hot it will be, like our short-term weather forecasts do but indicate how likely it is that the summer will be warmer or colder than average.

How far the temperature will deviate from the average cannot yet be answered. We can't wait to see who will be right; Böögg or the weather modellers!