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A weekend of stormy conditions bleeds into the new week before things become settled.

Humid and thundery are key to the weekend, with Sunday seeing extensive outbreaks of activity across the UK and Ireland.

Severe weather warnings are in effect for both Sunday and Monday where we see potential for strong localised downpours, lightning, and hail.

Despite this, temperatures continue to rise unabated, reaching highs of 30°C in places from Sunday onwards.

By Tuesday, conditions settle down for most, though there remains a risk of showers and possible storm activity over Ireland and Scotland.

Temperatures remain above average throughout the week, though those on the eastern coast may have the heat tapered by an onshore wind.

An extensive area of high pressure arrives over the UK and Ireland from Wednesday, which helps with those more stable conditions.

The following week has potential for fresh rainfall and thundery outbreaks, though it remains too early to predict.

Worried about flying? Things may be getting bumpier for you, a new study suggests aviation turbulence is worsening with climate change.

Research from the University of Reading shows that the skies that aircraft fly through today is much more unstable than 40 years ago.

Over the North Atlantic, one of the busiest flight paths in the world, the time spent in severely turbulent air has risen from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020, a 55% increase.

Moderate bouts of turbulence rose by 37% while light turbulence is up by 17%.

The study equates the rise to climate change, with hours building in line with other measurable effects of the warming climate.

More specifically, the effect is the result of warmer air caused by carbon dioxide emissions, which increases wind shear in the jet streams. Directly strengthening turbulence, especially over the North Atlantic.

Data shows that routes over the North Atlantic and USA experienced the most pronounced increase, through busy paths over Europe, The Middle East, and South America also felt the impact.

In addition to creating an uncomfortable ride for passengers, turbulence is estimated to cost the aviation industry between $150-500 million in the US due to increased wear-and-tear on planes and injuries to those onboard.

This study analysed 41 years of flight data over the North Atlantic from aircraft flying in clear-air conditions.

It is already a warm morning for those in southern areas of the UK and Ireland, and things are only getting hotter from here.

We're off to a hot start in Ireland and southern areas of the UK, with highs of 15°C in Cork and 16°C in Plymouth at just 06:00 am. Temperatures rise through the day, peaking around 26°C in the southwestern UK.

Cloud cover which has persisted over the northeast for days is finally easing through, it remains cooler in the region, particularly in eastern Scotland. It is a largely clear day, though some heavy showers pass over southern Ireland from 10:00 am.

Winds also continue to grow to moderate levels, reaching 35 mph around Plymouth.

If you are a nervous flyer, you may want to avoid our midday news that turbulence is growing stronger and the planet warms.

Also coming today and over the weekend:

An El Niño event has now been confirmed in the Pacific Ocean.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that the El Niño weather phenomenon has now appeared after previously being considered likely to do so in autumn.

This comes after three years of the cooling La Niña phenomenon came to an end with the situation currently neutral.

2022 was one of the warmest years since records began in 1850, despite coinciding with La Niña, which often causes lower average global temperatures.

El Niño delivers the opposite effect, warming ocean waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean which could lead to global temperature records in 2024.

Strong and moderate El Niño phases contribute to warming and increase average global surface temperatures, according to the WMO.

While the direct effects are felt in the Pacific Ocean close to the equator, they influence weather around the world.

During an El Niño event, trade winds weaken. Heavy rains occur more frequently along the coasts of South America, which can be very damaging, while severe droughts can affect Southeast Asia, including Australia.

Although there is no specific impact on the UK and Ireland, La Niña can result in more storms on our shores, while El Niño is somewhat associated with colder winters.

It may be too late to save Arctic sea ice during summer, with the first ice-free season likely to occur in the 2030s.

In a study led by the Pohang University of Science and Technology, it is shown that even if greenhouse gases fall significantly, we will still see an Arctic free from sea ice by the 2030s.

Sea ice is a constantly fluctuating feature of the Arctic. Each year it expands throughout winter, and shrinks in summer. This year we saw the fifth-smallest maximum extent on record.

Some ice survives each cycle through the year and is known as multiyear sea ice. Over the past four decades, this has slowly fallen from 7 million square km to 4 million.

With that trend set to continue, we now have the first summer free from ice in our sights. This has the potential to make the situation in the region even worse.

Sea ice is bright white and can reflect some solar energy back towards the atmosphere, whereas the ocean below is much darker and absorbs that energy, warming faster, and making recovery for ice even tougher.

As sea ice is influenced by both atmospheric and oceanic elements, determining an exact date is not possible. It was previously thought to take place in the 2040s or 2050s by the IPCC depending on actions to limit carbon emissions.

Up to 90% of Arctic melt is considered to be the result of human actions.

The news is yet another symbol of our climate’s health, and follows research late last year showing that the planet is at risk of crossing six key climate tipping points.