NASA has ambitious plans to send humans back to the Moon, but extreme weather conditions in space could hamper their efforts.

Unlike here on Earth, space weather is volatile and hard to forecast beyond the immediate short-term. Some aspects we can forecast though mean that the further behind schedule NASA fall the greater the danger.

A study by the University of Reading shows that if planned missions to the Moon are moved to the end of the decade more extreme conditions could arise due to the Sun’s 11-year long activity cycle.

At present, the Sun’s activity is increasing as it approaches the ‘solar maximum’ in 2025, creating a dangerous atmosphere for any launches from 2026 onwards.

Using 150 years of astral observations, the study revealed that at times of a solar maximum, storms of all sizes are more likely to develop. Coronal mass ejections, the eruption of plasma from the Sun are perhaps the most dangerous space weather event as they can destroy technology on Earth and in orbit.

NASA’s Artemis programme was scheduled to send humans back to the Moon in 2024 although reports late last year suggest this is likely to be missed. The longer the wait, the higher the risks.