Home
Weather Dublin
WeatherRadar
RainfallRadar
TemperatureRadar
WindRadar
LightningRadar
Weather News
Editor's Pick
Discover the app
Weather widget
Contact us
Apps
    Home / Editor's Pick /

    When will snow fall? Why snow forecasts can be unreliable

08:01
2 December 2023

When will snow fall?
Why forecasting snow is so tricky

snowmen

During the winter season, many of us might be thinking of when snow will fall in your area. But here is why you shouldn't believe all that you read.

Snow is actually very hard to forecast and the bottom line of a snow forecast is that you should never believe one that is for more than three days ahead. Even then, forecasts for one day ahead can be incorrect. Let us explain why.

The temperature of the air is perhaps the most crucial aspect when looking at a snow forecast. Generally, when temperatures are below 2°C, snow is possible with temperatures less than zero bringing more dry and powdery snow due to the lower moisture content.

While this sounds simple, whether the precipitation actually hits the ground as snow depends on the temperature of the air it's falling through.

Most precipitation first falls as snow from clouds, even sometimes in the summer months because it is so much colder higher up in the atmosphere. If the air temperature is low enough throughout the snowflakes fall it is likely to stay as snow.

However, if the snow travels through a warmer patch of air, it will melt and turn into rain or sleet. So while the air on the ground might be cold enough, temperatures further up could be slightly different meaning it won't hit the ground as snow.

Altitude is another important aspect. For every 100 metres in altitude, temperatures generally fall by 1°C. This explains why mountaintops often see more in the way of snow during autumn and winter compared to areas at lower levels.

Thirdly, location is important. If you live in a city or on the coast, it’s likely to be warmer than the surrounding area, so the snow could be just a few miles up the road. The same goes for it generally being colder at higher altitudes.

It isn't just temperature, altitude or location that influences whether it will snow or not, wind is also a factor.

A sudden change in wind direction can mean you will see either heavy snow or rain depending on where the wind has come from. When our winds are from the east during winter, the wind often carries dry and cold air, with snow more likely in the east.

The freezing level can change suddenly if the wind direction changes, altering where the air has come from or how long it has spent over the sea. If precipitation is falling heavily, it can drag down the freezing level down, turning heavy rain to snow.

Additionally, the track of a system can also affect where exactly it snows. With low pressure systems this week carrying milder air with them, a slight shift in the location of the system could alter the precipitation type.

Seven facts about snow!read more

If the temperatures well below freezing, then snow becomes easier to predict. But in the UK and Ireland, our temperatures are usually nearer freezing, and a fraction of a degree is all that separates rain and snow, making it one of the most tricky parts of a forecast.

You can see when we do forecast snow where you are using our WeatherRadar. We show snow using the colour pink, where the darker the shade, the heavier the snow.

Weather & Radar editorial team
More on the topic
Severe weather in southern Europe. Thunderstorms & heavy rain. . Weather Videos. Wednesday 9 September 2026
On the left, dark storm clouds over a coastline. On the right, a weather map shows thunderstorms over the western Mediterranean, with warning symbols for tornadoes, storms and hail.
Weather VideosWednesday 9 September 2026

Thunderstorms & heavy rain

Severe weather in southern Europe
Severe weather hits Mallorca and Italy. Severe thunderstorms. . Weather Videos. Thursday 10 September 2026
Numerous thunderstorms are sweeping across La Palma. The many lightning symbols on the radar and lightning map show that there is heavy lightning activity across large parts of the island. The thunderstorms are striking particularly in the island’s interior and in the south. On the right, you can see the aftermath: a large fallen tree has buried a car beneath it. Emergency services are clearing up the damage. So, along with the thunderstorms, not only heavy rain but also gusts of wind can become a problem.
Weather VideosThursday 10 September 2026

Severe thunderstorms

Severe weather hits Mallorca and Italy
Cheshire Gap produces shower funnel. Local phenomenon. . . Wednesday 9 September 2026
Weather map showing showers moving southeast from Liverpool toward Birmingham, driven by Cheshire Gap convergence across central England.
Wednesday 9 September 2026

Local phenomenon

Cheshire Gap produces shower funnel
All weather news
This might also interest you
Flooding, gales, and heavy snow. Storm Chandra. . . Tuesday 27 January 2026
Split image showing aerial flooding in a town with muddy water covering roads on the left, and a rural road on the right blocked by heavy snowfall with vans stopped and a person walking in snow.
Tuesday 27 January 2026

Storm Chandra

Flooding, gales, and heavy snow
A stormy week in the skies above. Your weather - Your shots. . . Sunday 30 August 2026
Split image showing lightning branching beneath dark storm clouds above rooftops on the left and an orange-pink sunset over a calm sea on the right.
Sunday 30 August 2026

Your weather - Your shots

A stormy week in the skies above
Long-term trends need a pinch of salt. 40 °C in July?. . . Tuesday 30 June 2026
Temperature radar of 2022 heatwave where the all-time temperature record in the UK was set. Warning symbol overlain.
Tuesday 30 June 2026

40 °C in July?

Long-term trends need a pinch of salt
All articles
Weather & Radar

Weather & Radar is also available on

Google Play StoreApp Store

Company

Contact us Privacy Policy Legal info Accessibility statement

Services

Uploader

Socials

facebooktwitteryouTubelinkList