Warm Atlantic vs. El Niño: A Showdown in the Tropics

Can a warm Atlantic Ocean spark considerable tropical storms, even in the presence of El Niño?

El Niño is said to suppress the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic as it produce warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, while in the La Niña phase, stronger activity is favoured.

But there are a few factors which could explain why weather models are currently favouring development.

The Atlantic Ocean is currently running warmer than usual. This is important because warm water acts as fuel for tropical storms. Imagine the Atlantic as a big pot of water, and the heat is turned up right now.

There's an important movement happening high up in the atmosphere. Large-scale convection, which can be imagined as big upward movements of moist air, is shifting toward the US.

This will initially boost storm activity in the eastern Pacific, but eventually, it creates a conducive environment for Atlantic tropical systems to form.

There's also a forecasted shift in the air currents over the tropical Atlantic. They're expected to come mainly from the west. This is not typical during an El Niño phase.

These westerly winds result in cyclonic (or anti-clockwise) circulations in the Atlantic atmosphere, which makes storm formation more likely.

So, even though it's been quiet in the Atlantic for weeks, history has shown us that this is the time when storm activity typically starts to increase. To put it into perspective, more than 80% of the season's usual activity is yet to come.

Given the time of year and the delicate interplay of these atmospheric conditions, we may be on the cusp of a very active period of Atlantic tropical storm development, even despite El Nino in play.