With one month to go until the big day, the countdown is officially on! But will it be a white Christmas?

It's the question on everyone's mind in the lead-up to Christmas, but forecasts this far out can be quite changeable.

Many wider-scale, long-term patterns outside of the UK and Ireland can have a dramatic influence on our local weather days, weeks and months ahead.

For example, El Niño, which is currently in phase, has on occasions been linked to enhancing the risk of colder winters across the UK and Ireland, but this is not guaranteed. Even volcanic eruptions can influence our weather pattern.

On the flip side, weather models are indicating that December, in addition to the winter months as a whole, will be on the warmer side of average.

However a trend by definition is the general direction in which something is developing or changing, rather than a specific point forecast, as Christmas Day would be.

December is at least, certainly beginning on a cold note with the chance of wintry weather for some places. As the month progresses however models are still indicating temperatures will return to around average, with unsettled conditions.

Though the overall trends are not looking overly hopeful for a cold, wintry December, anomalous days to the pattern can still occur.