The often-cited 1.5°C target aims to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Almost all countries in the world agreed to the target in Paris in 2015. The global deviation is averaged over an entire year.
For now, breaking the 2-degree mark only took place on a single day. This contrasts with the lower average values on most other days of the year. Meaning that the increase in the global annual mean temperature will ultimately settle somewhere close to the 1.5 degree threshold.
The World Meteorological Organisation assumes that the 1.5 degree temperature threshold will also be exceeded on average between 2023 and 2027.
June 2023's temperature anomaly averaged far above normal, setting the scene for the year to become a record-breaker.
However, the climate target has not yet been missed. It aims to limit warming by the year 2100. Theoretically, a drop in temperature is still possible by then.
Tipping points could be reached
Several studies suggest that with global warming between 1.5 and 2 degrees, the first so-called tipping points could already be reached.
These are processes in the Earth's climate system that "tip over" at a certain temperature increase and, according to the theory, continue to run on their own irreversibly.