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Myth or fact? Is a "mini-heatwave" coming?

15:00
19 April 2023

Myth or fact?
Is a "mini-heatwave" coming?

blue sky

Now we've all heard rumours of this "mini-heatwave", but are the rumours true?

A long-range forecast from the Met Office seemed to fuel the frenzy with hopes that a "heatwave" was more imminent, especially given temperatures just reached 20°C for the first time this year.

The statement however, detailed the chance of warmth at the end of April in a long-range forecast, after the spell of below-average temperatures coming up.

What is a heatwave?

A heatwave is defined as a prolonged period of hot weather after a temperature threshold has been reached and/or surpassed for a certain number of days. The exact threshold varies depending on location, so is a fairly loose definition

A long-range forecast is purely built on trends and averages. For example, if the next few weeks look to be warmer than average on the weather models, or drier than average.

When there is good agreement across weather models, you can have greater certainty, though it is still very difficult to give any indication of detail such as exact temperatures so many days ahead.

For now, the rest of this week looks to be dominated by high pressure, with temperatures fluctuating around the average. From around the 23rd April however, cold, northerly winds look to plunge in delivering below average temperatures.

In some weather models, at present, there is an indication by the end of that week that milder air from the south will push its way back in, while some others are set on the cold clinging on for a little longer.

How are weather forecasts created?read more

We will be sure to keep you updated on any and all upcoming weather in the longer-term, but you can also check out the WeatherRadar to see the detail in the shorter-term.

Weather & Radar editorial team
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