Home / Weather News /

Jaw-dropping heat: How likely is 40C in the British Isles?

13:00
11 July 2022

Jaw-dropping heat
How likely is 40C in the British Isles?

Hoards of people flock to Brighton Beach on the hottest day of the year so farHoards of people flock to Brighton Beach on the hottest day of the year so far - © picture alliance

Some frightening temperatures remain on the cards heading into the weekend and early next week, but how likely really is it?

At first, it was just one weather model, the GFS, pushing for seemingly absurd temperatures into the 40s Celsius, but as the days have gone on, this weather model is no longer standing alone.

Other models have now begun lining up with similar figures, suggesting that we could potentially shatter the UK’s all-time temperature record of 38.7C.

The all-time temperature record of 38.7C was observed in Cambridge in July 2019. Out of the last 100 years of records, twelve of those years have seen temperatures rise above 35C in the British Isles, four of which have occurred since 2015.

Whilst it once seemed almost impossible to reach 40C in the British Isles, it also seemed similarly unlikely to reach 50C in northwest Canada, or 30C in arctic Russia. However both occurred in June 2021 and June 2022 respectively.

In the British Isles, conditions to achieve these kinds of heights must be just right, and it all relies on the track of a plume of exceptionally hot air being transported from the south, accompanied by high pressure.

Once this forecast period comes into the short-range, high-resolution models, confidence in these model outputs can build.

A model output isn’t a forecast, but it does show a possibility, however small. So, whether we will see 40C next week or not is still uncertain for now, but extremely alarming that it is no longer unrealistic.

Keep an eye on our TemperatureRadar to check out the temperatures three days ahead.

Weather & Radar editorial team
More on the topic
pinecones
Tuesday 7 October 2025

Did you know?

How pine cones aid the weather forecast
Wednesday 15 October 2025

On this day

The Great Storm of 1987
Weather radar shows heavy snowfall on Thursday in the Scandinavian mountains.
Wednesday 15 October 2025

First onset of winter

Heavy snowfall in Scandinavia
All weather news
This might also interest you
Friday 22 August 2025

Breakfast brief

Sunny start for some, overcast later
Mammatus clouds
Thursday 21 August 2025

Unusual view

Mammatus clouds over Ireland
Weather map of the UK and Ireland showing scattered showers with cloudy patches across much of the region, especially around western and northern areas. Sunshine symbols appear over London, Cardiff, and parts of southern England, while temperatures range from 17°C to 18°C in most places. Areas of heavier rain are visible over the Atlantic to the west.
Friday 29 August 2025

Breakfast brief

Unsettled conditions into the weekend
All articles
Weather & Radar

www.weatherandradar.ie

facebooktwitteryouTubeContact uslinkList
Privacy Policy | Legal info | Accessibility statement