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Hurricane-force winds: Storm Ciarán to bring damaging weather

11:00
1 November 2023

Hurricane-force winds
Storm Ciarán to bring damaging weather

Ciaran

Storm Ciarán is set to arrive from Wednesday night, November 1st bringing hurricane-force winds to parts of the UK.

Storm Ciarán is already waiting out in the wings of the Atlantic, with impacts likely to be first felt from late Wednesday afternoon November 1st in the south-west of England, strengthening overnight.

Multiple weather warnings are in force inside the app, as are amber weather warnings from the Met Office.

Forecast

The deep area of low pressure could break UK pressure records as it rapidly intensifies and deepens. The all-time pressure low stands at 925.6hPa in 1884, while the all-time November record is held at 937.7hPa from 1877, and slightly more recently (and officially) 948hPa in 1954.

At present, the bullseye of the storm looks to hit around Devon and Dorset, with the strongest winds wrapping around to the south from around 5 am or 6 am Thursday 2nd, peaking for the south-west Peninsula of Cornwall, alongside the Kent and Sussex coast.

Here, wind gusts could reach locally in excess of 80 mph bringing damaging, hurricane-force winds, accompanied by large waves and a risk of coastal flooding. The Channel Islands could see gusts roughly reach a forceful 100 mph.

Along the rest of the south coast of England, in addition to exposed coastal Wales and the East of England, gusts could reach 50 - 60 mph, though possibly nearer to 70 mph along the south coast in areas surrounding the peak winds. Inland, gusts could get to 40 - 50 mph.

Southern Ireland could see wind gusts of around 30 mph plus generally south of Dublin, getting to around 40 mph along southern coastal fringes.

Later in the afternoon as the winds wrap round the UK, strong winds are also anticipated through the Cheshire Gap, reaching 40 - 45 mph. Similar for northern and eastern Scotland. Strong winds will persist along the Channel coast through the night, gradually easing Friday morning.

Rain will arrive in coincidence with strong winds, from around 6 - 7 pm across Cornwall, spreading north-eastwards through Wednesday night. A messy picture through Thursday as bands of rain sweep in as the system spirals across the UK.

Torrential and potentially thundery downpours will be embedded within, with Wales in particular looking to see the greatest amount of rain fall by the end of Thursday.

Rainfall totals could widely reach around 40 mm, perhaps 60 - 80mm over upland areas of Wales. Parts of Cornwall, particularly upland areas around Bodmin, in addition to southern fringes of England are also expected to see high rainfall totals bringing a risk of flooding.

Some heavy rain is possible along eastern fringes of Ireland Wednesday night, but for the most part Thursday, Ireland should see broadly dry and even sunny conditions.

Impacts

Following hurricane-force winds and torrential rainfall, Storm Storm Ciarán could bring damaging and devastating impacts across parts of England and Wales.

The strength of the winds could whip up large coastal waves, bringing a risk of coastal flooding, while the heavy rain on saturated soils will also bring a risk of standing water and road surface spray. Rivers could also flood.

As a result, many annual fireworks displays for November 1st and 2nd have been cancelled by councils, including across Powys, Brighton, Norfolk, Market Harborough and Redditch.

Southern Railway and Great Western Railway are warning of disruptions to trains, while ferry services between Newhaven and Dieppe have been cancelled. Gatwick Express and Thameslink routes are also expected to be impacted.

In France, the French railway operator SNCF has suspended regions train services across several cities to guarantee passenger safety on Thursday. The Government of Jersey also advises people to stay at home, with the Jersey and Guernsey airport and all state schools an the island closed.

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