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Election day forecast: Does the weather impact the turnout?

13:39
3 July 2024

Election day forecast
Does the weather impact the turnout?

british people in the rain© picture alliance

Ever wondered if the weather has any impact on how or if people vote?

When the General Election was announced, it absolutely poured down outside of Downing Street. Will Election Day itself be any different?

Thunderstorms for some

The morning of Thursday 4th July will begin broadly fine with sunny spells across much of England and Wales, away from north-western portions and Scotland.

Scattered showers will develop across north-west England, with more organised showery rain pushing into north-west Scotland. The showers here look to become increasingly lively during the afternoon, with a risk of thunderstorms and potent downpours.

A few lighter showers across Ireland, with cloud thickening through the afternoon bringing persistent rain to southern portions. This rain will then edge eastwards into south-west England heading into the evening, just as polling stations look to close.

A windswept election?

Even despite the drier weather to the south, winds will be blustery, gusting widely above 30 mph across the board. Winds more widely reaching closer to 40 mph across Ireland and Northern Ireland, in addition to northern portions of England and Scotland.

Across the Pennines and any Scottish mountains, in addition to exposed western fringes, winds are expected to gust locally nearer to 50 mph.

Though there is hope of a higher turnout in the brighter summer days, experts say there is no correlation between weather and the polling numbers. That being said, it could be a different story for those in north-west Scotland needing to get out their house amidst driving winds and rain.

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