It may be too late to save Arctic sea ice during summer, with the first ice-free season likely to occur in the 2030s.

In a study led by the Pohang University of Science and Technology, it is shown that even if greenhouse gases fall significantly, we will still see an Arctic free from sea ice by the 2030s.

Sea ice is a constantly fluctuating feature of the Arctic. Each year it expands throughout winter, and shrinks in summer. This year we saw the fifth-smallest maximum extent on record.

Some ice survives each cycle through the year and is known as multiyear sea ice. Over the past four decades, this has slowly fallen from 7 million square km to 4 million.

With that trend set to continue, we now have the first summer free from ice in our sights. This has the potential to make the situation in the region even worse.

Sea ice is bright white and can reflect some solar energy back towards the atmosphere, whereas the ocean below is much darker and absorbs that energy, warming faster, and making recovery for ice even tougher.

As sea ice is influenced by both atmospheric and oceanic elements, determining an exact date is not possible. It was previously thought to take place in the 2040s or 2050s by the IPCC depending on actions to limit carbon emissions.

Up to 90% of Arctic melt is considered to be the result of human actions.

The news is yet another symbol of our climate’s health, and follows research late last year showing that the planet is at risk of crossing six key climate tipping points.