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Everyone wants to know... How likely is a White Christmas?

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8 December 2025

Everyone wants to know...
How likely is a White Christmas?

Snow-covered outdoor Christmas market with wooden stalls lit by warm lights, a decorated fir tree, falling snow, and a historic stone church and statue in the background.Will our Christmas markets see a dusting of snow?

Around this time each year, there is a common question ringing through the air… will we see a White Christmas?

Unfortunately for the UK and Ireland, the answer is, not likely. Christmas is only the start of our snowy season, with flakes more likely to fall between January and March.

Snow at Christmas were more common in the 18th and 19th centuries with a cooler climate.

A White Christmas is defined as a single snowflake falling within the 24 hours of Christmas Day. The snow doesn't have to settle, just be observed falling.

Since 1960, half of the years have seen over 5% of weather stations recording snow falling on Christmas, meaning a White Christmas has a fifty-fifty chance.

More widespread snow at Christmas is much rarer, with snow falling at more than 40% of stations just four times since 1960.

Ryan Hathaway
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