The Atlantic hurricane season is nearing its end by date, but the storm factory is still churning away.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, and while it may be nearing its end date, the season is far from over yet.
According to the latest update on November 15th, Tropical Storm Vince has a 50% chance of cyclone formation over the next week according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), with potential to impact parts of the Caribbean and Central America.
Tropical storm Vince could soon become the 21st named storm of the year, placing 2023 in the top 3 busiest years for named Atlantic storm systems.
2020 currently ranks as the busiest year on record with 30 named storms, followed in second by 2005 with 28, while 2021 is currently sat at third with 21. 2023 could soon join that position.
The NOAA forecasters predicted an above-average year in terms of activity of 14 - 21 named storms, with the average season producing 14 named storms. This was based on above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures, even despite El Niño in play.
Currently, El Niño condition are in phase, which typically result in reduced hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. This is due to the result of more stable atmospheric conditions and an increase in vertical wind shear.
However the projections were that the high sea surface temperatures would counter-balance El Niño, which seems to be the case.