After a record October: 2023 to be hottest year ever

October 2023 was the hottest on record, with 2023 as a whole looking like it could break the hottest year ever recorded too.

2023 saw the hottest October since records began, with a global average temperature 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels. The average global temperature for October was 0.4°C above the previous record, set in 2019.

It is now looking almost certain that 2023 as a whole will be the hottest year ever on record, and is currently 1.43°C above the global average.

This is using data from Copernicus and also the IPCC, which uses historical data from ice cores, tree rings and coral deposits, dating back 125,000 years. The past eight years have been the warmest globally, largely owing to ever-rising greenhouse gas concentrations.

The Paris Agreement eight years ago saw world leaders commit to halt the planet's warming at 1.5°C, yet we are already there. Records are being continuously smashed by the day, let alone month or year.

We are also in the midst of El Niño, a climatic phase that temporarily warms the central and eastern Pacific ocean, with global temperatures typically rising more than in La Niña.

However, this year so far, El Niño is not as strong as it has been in previous years, yet our global temperatures are still far higher. 2016 for example, an exceptionally strong El Niño year, is currently the hottest on record (prior to 2023).