Home
Weather Dublin
WeatherRadar
RainfallRadar
TemperatureRadar
WindRadar
LightningRadar
Weather News
Editor's Pick
Discover the app
Weather widget
Contact us
Apps
    Home / Editor's Pick /

    When will snow fall? Why snow forecasts can be unreliable

08:01
2 December 2023

When will snow fall?
Why forecasting snow is so tricky

snowmen

During the winter season, many of us might be thinking of when snow will fall in your area. But here is why you shouldn't believe all that you read.

Snow is actually very hard to forecast and the bottom line of a snow forecast is that you should never believe one that is for more than three days ahead. Even then, forecasts for one day ahead can be incorrect. Let us explain why.

The temperature of the air is perhaps the most crucial aspect when looking at a snow forecast. Generally, when temperatures are below 2°C, snow is possible with temperatures less than zero bringing more dry and powdery snow due to the lower moisture content.

While this sounds simple, whether the precipitation actually hits the ground as snow depends on the temperature of the air it's falling through.

Most precipitation first falls as snow from clouds, even sometimes in the summer months because it is so much colder higher up in the atmosphere. If the air temperature is low enough throughout the snowflakes fall it is likely to stay as snow.

However, if the snow travels through a warmer patch of air, it will melt and turn into rain or sleet. So while the air on the ground might be cold enough, temperatures further up could be slightly different meaning it won't hit the ground as snow.

Altitude is another important aspect. For every 100 metres in altitude, temperatures generally fall by 1°C. This explains why mountaintops often see more in the way of snow during autumn and winter compared to areas at lower levels.

Thirdly, location is important. If you live in a city or on the coast, it’s likely to be warmer than the surrounding area, so the snow could be just a few miles up the road. The same goes for it generally being colder at higher altitudes.

It isn't just temperature, altitude or location that influences whether it will snow or not, wind is also a factor.

A sudden change in wind direction can mean you will see either heavy snow or rain depending on where the wind has come from. When our winds are from the east during winter, the wind often carries dry and cold air, with snow more likely in the east.

The freezing level can change suddenly if the wind direction changes, altering where the air has come from or how long it has spent over the sea. If precipitation is falling heavily, it can drag down the freezing level down, turning heavy rain to snow.

Additionally, the track of a system can also affect where exactly it snows. With low pressure systems this week carrying milder air with them, a slight shift in the location of the system could alter the precipitation type.

Seven facts about snow!read more

If the temperatures well below freezing, then snow becomes easier to predict. But in the UK and Ireland, our temperatures are usually nearer freezing, and a fraction of a degree is all that separates rain and snow, making it one of the most tricky parts of a forecast.

You can see when we do forecast snow where you are using our WeatherRadar. We show snow using the colour pink, where the darker the shade, the heavier the snow.

Weather & Radar editorial team
More on the topic
Colourful skies and video moments. Your weather - Your shots. . . Sunday 7 June 2026
Split image showing a bright blue sky with scattered white altocumulus clouds above trees on the left, and a rainbow arching over a windy gray sea beneath dark storm clouds on the right.
Sunday 7 June 2026

Your weather - Your shots

Colourful skies and video moments
Tropical storm hits Mexico. Ahead of the World Cup. . . Monday 8 June 2026
A small weather map showing satellite imagery and precipitation over Europe. A red warning triangle with an exclamation mark is displayed in the bottom left-hand corner. The map shows numerous blue, yellow and orange weather symbols indicating active precipitation or areas of thunderstorms. The graphic conveys a general weather or severe weather warning.
Monday 8 June 2026

Ahead of the World Cup

Tropical storm hits Mexico
Damp Thursday as rain moves through. Raincoat needed. . . Thursday 11 June 2026
Satellite weather map of the UK and Ireland on Thursday 11.06 showing a broad band of rain moving east-northeast across Britain, with a rain cloud icon, directional arrow, and temperatures around 11–15°C.
Thursday 11 June 2026

Raincoat needed

Damp Thursday as rain moves through
All weather news
This might also interest you
Bright and warm conditions take hold. Spring-like outlook. . . Thursday 23 April 2026
Split UK map showing warm temperatures up to 21 degrees in orange on the left and clear sunny conditions with temperatures from 12 to 18 degrees on the right, with sun icons across the country.
Thursday 23 April 2026

Spring-like outlook

Bright and warm conditions take hold
Happy New Year. Hello 2026. . . Wednesday 31 December 2025
Illustration of white and yellow fireworks on a blue background.
Wednesday 31 December 2025

Hello 2026

Happy New Year
Mixed conditions on an unsettled week. Your weather - Your shots. . . Sunday 2 November 2025
plit image showing a double rainbow over a rocky shoreline on the left and sheep grazing in a green field under stormy clouds on the right.
Sunday 2 November 2025

Your weather - Your shots

Mixed conditions on an unsettled week
All articles
Weather & Radar

Weather & Radar is also available on

Google Play StoreApp Store

Company

Contact us Privacy Policy Legal info Accessibility statement

Services

Uploader

Socials

facebooktwitteryouTubelinkList