Once again, we are hearing of an upcoming heatwave, but is this actually going to happen or is it just full of hot air?

Reports of temperatures soaring to upwards of 35°C are back in papers, following thunderstorms across the country.

These reports are founded on the arrival of an African Plume towards the beginning of June. Which will indeed result in temperatures reaching over 20°C… but not quite enough officially for a heatwave.

Additionally, this long-term trend is also to be taken with a pinch of salt.

A long-range forecast is purely built on trends and averages. For example, if the next few weeks look to be warmer than average on the weather models, or drier than average.

When there is good agreement across weather models, you can have greater certainty, though it is still very difficult to give any indication of detail such as exact temperatures so many days ahead.

Additionally, there are set thresholds for when a heatwave is declared. Temperatures must pass a set temperature for a period of three days or more. The actual temperature varies between 25 and 28°C depending on where in the country you are.

How about mini-heatwaves? This is not an accepted meteorological term, therefore no criteria exists behind it.

It is unlikely that we will see this met, meaning that no heatwave is approaching, although climatic conditions do mean they are growing more frequent in the UK and Ireland.

When, or if, a heatwave is on the horizon, you can be sure that Weather & Radar will be here to keep you up to date with the latest information. At all other times you can keep watch on the heat for yourself using the TemperatureRadar.