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Study shows tropical activity increase

17:00
10 December 2021

More hurricanes?
Study shows tropical activity increase

Satellite image of Hurricanes Maria & Jose in September 2017. Image by NASA/NOAA GOES Project/Handout via REUTERS.Satellite image of Hurricanes Maria & Jose in September 2017. - © NASA/NOAA GOES Project

Studies have confirmed that climate change has increased the strength of tropical cyclones around the world because of warming oceans providing extra fuel for formation, but has there been an increase in them globally?

Since the 1970s, forecasters have used satellites to 'warn' in advance of storms, but the big question is whether there has been an increase in frequency when looking further back than the satellite era and over the last 150 years.

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Footage from within a hurricane was captured for the first time ever this season within the eye of Category 4 Hurricane Sam

Professor and scientist Kerry Emanuel from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) looked into this query by developing a climate model to reconstruct the past to see how many storms have formed over the last 150 years.

According to his study, there has been a marked increase in the number of tropical cyclones since the mid-19th Century, mainly over the North Atlantic Ocean. However, the cause for the increase is unknown at this time.

Emanuel though, does not rule out climate change. It is important to emphasise that while warming is global, the impacts are not the same at a global level. This could be why there was an increase over the North Atlantic.

Other experts have also produced studies and although they do not discredit Emanuel's research, they point out that there are many studies that do not necessarily indicate an increase in the number of storms.

However, studies like the one done by Emanuel using databases and scientific data, give hope that each time we look back we can learn more about the Earth's history and get a better idea of the impact we make on the world.

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