Severe rainfall event for C & E Europe

A developing low pressure system is expected to bring a significant flood risk to large parts of central and eastern Europe.

A slow-moving low pressure system moving over Northern Italy across the Balkans and into Poland in the coming days, is expected to bring extremely heavy rainfall.

The rainfall event is expected to impact between Thursday 12th September and Monday 16th September.

Over two months worth of rain may fall in just a few days, with mountainous regions above 1000 m seeing unseasonably heavy snowfall.

150 - 200 mm of rainfall is expected, locally as much as 400 mm in parts. This is reflected in the red weather warnings currently in force inside the app for the affected areas.

Due to the enormous amounts of rain, there is a very significant risk of flooding, particularly after a period of prolonged dry and hot weather.

During the weekend, the risk of flooding of major rivers (including the Danube, Vltava, Elbe and Oder) is expected to increase, with some rivers reaching a major flood stage.

This has the potential to be a devastating 1-in-20 or even a a 1-in-50 year flood event for some river catchments, with the risk that many may burst their banks.

Heading into next week however, confidence in the track of the low and duration of the rain becomes low due to various factors within weather models and external influences such as surrounding topography and Mediterranean sea surface temperatures.