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Remnants of Debby to impact us?

12:00
6 August 2024

Huge forecast uncertainty
Remnants of Debby to impact us?

Strong jet stream driving in unsettled weather across the Atlantic to the UK & Ireland.

Weather models can't seem to decide what's going on with the weather heading into next week, but there is good reason for that.

Current weather models have a significant but unusual degree of uncertainty still, for only a matter of days ahead.

Usually when meteorologists analyse trends from a range of different model outputs, there tends to be decent agreement in the coming few days, with then a wider spread of output solutions further ahead.

However even by the end of the week, models are disagreeing enormously, and it's in part, down to Tropical Storm Debby.

Tropical Storm Debby, currently over Florida, is expected to spawn a disturbance that sweeps eastwards across the Atlantic, powered across by the jet stream, towards the UK and Ireland.

Fatalities from Debby in Floridaread more

There is a lot of uncertainty on when this trigger disturbance would reach our waters, but likely at some point over the weekend; with disagreement therefore on when and where would see rain this weekend.

Models are also indicating a surge of heat and humidity, with this building up from the south of the UK.

Beyond the next few days, the remnants of ex-Hurricane Debby may also get swept up into the jet stream, with another cause for uncertainty in the forecasts through next week. This may also later bring a surge of warmth and humidity.

Can we get hurricanes here?read more
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