Icelandic volcano update: Poor weather interferes with monitoring

Evacuation orders remain in place ahead of an imminent volcanic eruption in Iceland, but seismic activity has seemingly slowed amid severe weather.

The arrival of strong winds and snow in south-western Iceland over the past few days has coincided with a drop in seismic activity recorded around the Fagradaslfjall volcano, which is no coincidence.

On Tuesday, 165 earthquakes were recorded in the area. Far below the 1,500 to 1,800 quakes in the days prior. Weather is playing a role; the adverse conditions are impacting the ability of monitoring systems to detect the smallest earthquakes.

This makes it difficult to track the situation overall, with Icelandic volcanologists warning there would be mere minutes of warning if an eruption were to occur while monitoring systems were facing interference.

Earlier in the week, it was stated that around 30 minutes of forewarning would precede any eruption, with closer monitoring of the magma’s movement possible via seismic activity.

It is not just the winds making an impact, surging ocean waves create microseims which overwhelm the low-frequency capabilities of seismometers in the peninsula while the arrival of fog and snow may obscure visual confirmation of an eruption.

Members of the public remain barred from entering the town of Grindavík where cracks have appeared in the ground. The town is seemingly destined to be destroyed when an eruption takes place. Officials have allowed some residents to briefly return home to collect belongings.

Also at risk is the nearby Svartsengi Power Station, where evidence of an upswell has been recorded.

Work to dig a protective trench around the geothermal station, intended to divert any flow of lava, took place last week.

We continue to monitor developments in the area and will bring updates as the situation develops.