Home
Weather Dublin
WeatherRadar
RainfallRadar
TemperatureRadar
WindRadar
LightningRadar
Weather News
Editor's Pick
Discover the app
Weather widget
Contact us
Apps
    Home / Editor's Pick /

    When will snow fall? Why snow forecasts can be unreliable

08:01
2 December 2023

When will snow fall?
Why forecasting snow is so tricky

snowmen

During the winter season, many of us might be thinking of when snow will fall in your area. But here is why you shouldn't believe all that you read.

Snow is actually very hard to forecast and the bottom line of a snow forecast is that you should never believe one that is for more than three days ahead. Even then, forecasts for one day ahead can be incorrect. Let us explain why.

The temperature of the air is perhaps the most crucial aspect when looking at a snow forecast. Generally, when temperatures are below 2°C, snow is possible with temperatures less than zero bringing more dry and powdery snow due to the lower moisture content.

While this sounds simple, whether the precipitation actually hits the ground as snow depends on the temperature of the air it's falling through.

Most precipitation first falls as snow from clouds, even sometimes in the summer months because it is so much colder higher up in the atmosphere. If the air temperature is low enough throughout the snowflakes fall it is likely to stay as snow.

However, if the snow travels through a warmer patch of air, it will melt and turn into rain or sleet. So while the air on the ground might be cold enough, temperatures further up could be slightly different meaning it won't hit the ground as snow.

Altitude is another important aspect. For every 100 metres in altitude, temperatures generally fall by 1°C. This explains why mountaintops often see more in the way of snow during autumn and winter compared to areas at lower levels.

Thirdly, location is important. If you live in a city or on the coast, it’s likely to be warmer than the surrounding area, so the snow could be just a few miles up the road. The same goes for it generally being colder at higher altitudes.

It isn't just temperature, altitude or location that influences whether it will snow or not, wind is also a factor.

A sudden change in wind direction can mean you will see either heavy snow or rain depending on where the wind has come from. When our winds are from the east during winter, the wind often carries dry and cold air, with snow more likely in the east.

The freezing level can change suddenly if the wind direction changes, altering where the air has come from or how long it has spent over the sea. If precipitation is falling heavily, it can drag down the freezing level down, turning heavy rain to snow.

Additionally, the track of a system can also affect where exactly it snows. With low pressure systems this week carrying milder air with them, a slight shift in the location of the system could alter the precipitation type.

Seven facts about snow!read more

If the temperatures well below freezing, then snow becomes easier to predict. But in the UK and Ireland, our temperatures are usually nearer freezing, and a fraction of a degree is all that separates rain and snow, making it one of the most tricky parts of a forecast.

You can see when we do forecast snow where you are using our WeatherRadar. We show snow using the colour pink, where the darker the shade, the heavier the snow.

Weather & Radar editorial team
More on the topic
A wet start before conditions settle. Commonwealth Games 2026. . . Wednesday 22 July 2026
Split image showing a weather map for western Scotland with widespread rain around Glasgow on the left, and runners poised at a starting line on an athletics track on the right.
Wednesday 22 July 2026

Commonwealth Games 2026

A wet start before conditions settle
Drought for North Wales and Upper Severn. 2% of average rainfall. . . Thursday 23 July 2026
Split image showing a July rainfall anomaly map of Europe on the left with below-average rainfall across the UK, Ireland, and much of western and central Europe, and an active moorland wildfire on the right producing flames and thick smoke near homes.
Thursday 23 July 2026

2% of average rainfall

Drought for North Wales and Upper Severn
Forest fires are getting out of control. Spain and France. . . Saturday 25 July 2026
A split-screen image featuring a photograph and a weather map. On the left, thick, dark-grey smoke rises from several fire sites in a wooded coastal area; a calm stretch of water can be seen in the foreground. On the right, a weather map shows south-western France and northern Spain. A red arrow points from the Atlantic towards the French Atlantic coast, symbolising an onshore wind. Sunny weather is forecast for Bordeaux at around 20 degrees, and Bilbao is also expected to be sunny at around 27 degrees. A large warning sign with a flame symbol indicates an increased risk of forest fires.
Saturday 25 July 2026

Spain and France

Forest fires are getting out of control
All weather news
This might also interest you
Turbulent weather in the Canary Islands. Storm and rain. . . Friday 12 December 2025
Weather graphic showing rain and wind fields over the Canary Islands and a central warning symbol.
Friday 12 December 2025

Storm and rain

Turbulent weather in the Canary Islands
Historic Storm Éowyn arrives. On this day.... . . Saturday 24 January 2026
Split image showing a person in a yellow jacket struggling against strong winds and heavy rain on a street at night on the left, and an Irish wind forecast map on the right with red and purple shading, gusts up to 75 mph, and a wind warning icon, divided by a curved white line.
Saturday 24 January 2026

On this day...

Historic Storm Éowyn arrives
Bright and warm conditions take hold. Spring-like outlook. . . Thursday 23 April 2026
Split UK map showing warm temperatures up to 21 degrees in orange on the left and clear sunny conditions with temperatures from 12 to 18 degrees on the right, with sun icons across the country.
Thursday 23 April 2026

Spring-like outlook

Bright and warm conditions take hold
All articles
Weather & Radar

Weather & Radar is also available on

Google Play StoreApp Store

Company

Contact us Privacy Policy Legal info Accessibility statement

Services

Uploader

Socials

facebooktwitteryouTubelinkList