2024 predictions: Will this summer be a hot one?

With 2024 projected to be another record breaker of a year, just how much merit does that statement hold?

The year is already off to a warm start with April 2024 coming in as the 11th month in a row to be the hottest on record.

2024 may be first year to hit 1.5°C of warming (relative to the global above average temperature from 1991-2020). Last year February 2023 to January 2024 reached this threshold, though it wasn't quite the entire calendar year of 2023.

In short, no. We can look at overall trends for regions during a given month in the near future, but that will just be an average for the whole month, and doesn't account for any brief but extreme swings or fluctuations.

For example we can say that July 2024 is looking above-average for much of Europe, particularly Spain, however that could just be a few days of hot weather that skew the average, followed by roughly around or below-average temperatures.

Across Europe it currently looks like June, July and August are all trending above-average in terms of temperature, with a greater focus on southern and eastern Europe as hot spots.

In terms of pressure and precipitation, which are also important factors, June looks more low pressure dominated, with around average rainfall expected particularly for western Europe.

July is forecast to see above average rainfall in the south, with drier, high pressure dominated conditions in the east. August looks to see generally drier and more settled weather across the bulk of Europe.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a recurring climate phenomenon crucial in determining global weather and temperature patterns.

We're currently in an ENSO neutral phase with El Niño warning, forecast to remain neutral for the start of the summer at least. There are signs of La Niña possible later, with a greater risk from August in particular.

When El Niño is in play, higher global temperatures are generally expected, but with a neutral phase it may not have too much weight.

That being said, despite El Niño continuing to weaken in the eastern equatorial Pacific in recent months, high air and ocean temperatures have been persisting regardless. There are some instances when the ocean can look like it is in an El Niño or La Niña state, despite not actually being.

Climate change is also another factor to explore. The global-average temperature for the past twelve months, April 2023 to March 2024, is the highest on record, at 0.70°C above the 1991-2020 average.

The last 10 years have also been the 10 warmest on record, with most of the Earth's warming occurring in the last 40 years.

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases will also continue to push the global temperature towards new temperature records.